Spatial distribution of population and forest cover in extractive reserves in the Amazon biome, Brazil

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0294%20

Palabras clave:

Distribución Espacial, Áreas Protegidas, LUCC, Fragmentación Forestal, Regresión Lineal, Valor de Shapley

Resumen

Este estudio relaciona las medidas espaciales de la cobertura forestal con las medidas de la distribución espacial de la población en las 31 Reservas Extractivas (REs) dentro del bioma amazónico, Brasil, en 2010. Integramos capas de información sobre las REs, la cobertura forestal y la distribución espacial de la población en un Sistema de Información Geográfica. Producimos 24 variables en tres grupos: 1) Población, 2) Condiciones Externas (ambas como variables predictoras), y 3) Cobertura Terrestre (variables predichas). Evaluamos si las variables predictoras están correlacionadas con las variables de cobertura y fragmentación forestal. Se realizaron análisis de regresión lineal basados en la teoría de juegos cooperativos para comprender la importancia de las variables predictoras en la predicción del número de fragmentos forestales y el porcentaje de cobertura forestal en los modelos. Encontramos que el tamaño, la concentración, la dispersión y la geometría de la población contribuyeron a comprender la deforestación, así como la estructura del paisaje. Sin embargo, la fragmentación forestal y la extensión de la cobertura forestal no están necesariamente definidas por los mismos aspectos de la población. Los modelos sugieren que el cambio en la cobertura forestal está impulsado principalmente por la concentración de la población en la RE, mientras que la fragmentación forestal está altamente influenciada por la dispersión de la población. El papel de las condiciones externas (bosques circundantes y áreas protegidas) también fue relevante. Nuestro estudio destaca la importancia de incorporar medidas de distribución espacial de los bosques en la investigación sobre Población y Medio Ambiente, más allá del enfoque habitual en la extensión forestal. También muestra la importancia de trabajar con variables demográficas espaciales, yendo más allá del enfoque convencional centrado en el tamaño de la población.

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Biografía del autor/a

Álvaro de Oliveira D'Antona, Faculdade de Ciências Aplicadas - FCA/Unicamp

Livre Docente da Faculdade de Ciências Aplicadas da Unicamp. Professor do Mestrado Interdisciplinar em Ciências Humanas e Sociais Aplicadas e do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Demografia (Unicamp). Colaborador do Núcleo de Estudos de População 'Elza Berquó' (NEPO-Unicamp).

Julia Corrêa Côrtes, Unicamp

Engenheira Agrônoma (ESALQ/USP), Doutora e Mestra em Demografia pelo Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas (IFCH/UNICAMP) com período de residência durante o doutorado no Center for Latin American Studies da University of Florida (LATAM/UF). Realizou pesquisa de pós-doutorado (PNPD/CAPES) pelo Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ambiente e Sociedade (IFCH/NEPAM/UNICAMP). Com experiência interdisciplinar na região da Amazônia brasileira desde 2010, pesquisa através do método misto os processos demográficos do desmatamento, degradação e dinâmica no uso da terra. As atuais atividades de pesquisa abordam a distribuição populacional e dinâmicas socioespaciais, mobilidade e gênero, urbanização e urbanidades no rural.

José Diego Gobbo Alves, Unicamp

Graduado em Geografia (Licenciatura e Bacharelado) pela Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho (UNESP - Rio Claro), onde foi bolsista de projeto de extensão universitária (PROEX) e de iniciação científica (FAPESP). Mestre em Ciências Humanas e Sociais Aplicadas pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp), onde foi bolsista de mestrado FAPESP. Atualmente é aluno do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ambiente e Sociedade (Doutorado) na Universidade Estadual de Campinas, sendo bolsista CAPES. Tem atuado desde a graduação nas áreas de Urbanização e dispersão urbana; Distribuição espacial da população; Mobilidade urbana e regional; Planejamento urbano e ambiental; Geoprocessamento e Mudanças no uso e cobertura da terra. 

Leonardo Tomazeli Duarte, Unicamp

Leonardo Tomazeli Duarte graduou-se em Engenharia Elétrica pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) (2004). É Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica pela Unicamp (2006), Doutor pelo Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble (Grenoble INP - Université Grenoble Alpes, França) (2009), na modalidade "Signal, Image, Parole, Télécom", e Livre-Docente pela Unicamp (2020). Realizou estágio pós-doutoral na Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier (França) (2023). É Professor Associado (MS 5.2) na Faculdade de Ciências Aplicadas (FCA) da Unicamp. Sua pesquisa se insere nas áreas de processamento de sinais, aprendizado de máquina e métodos de apoio à decisão multicritério, em tópicos que incluem aprendizado não supervisionado; separação de sinais e análise de variáveis latentes (ICA, SCA, NMF); compensação de distorções não lineares; agregação de dados via integral de Choquet; equidade e interpretabilidade em aprendizado de máquina. 

Guilherme Pelegrina, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie - Escola de Engenharia

Guilherme Dean Pelegrinais an Assistant Professor at Mackenzie Presbyterian University. He completed postdoctoral research at the University of Campinas (UNICAMP) and at Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne (France). Through a co-tutelle agreement, he holds a PhD in Electrical Engineering from the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Campinas and a PhD in Applied Mathematics from Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne (France). He also holds a Master’s and a Bachelor›s degree in Production Engineering from the School of Applied Sciences (UNICAMP).

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Publicado

2025-06-06

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D’Antona, Álvaro de O., Corrêa Côrtes, J., Gobbo Alves, J. D., Tomazeli Duarte, L., & Pelegrina, G. (2025). Spatial distribution of population and forest cover in extractive reserves in the Amazon biome, Brazil. Revista Brasileira De Estudos De População, 42, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.20947/S0102-3098a0294

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Vol. 42 (2025)

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