População centenária brasileira: estimativas indiretas da sua quantidade para os anos de 2000 e 2010, por sexo, com base nas certidões de óbitoões de certidão de óbito.

Abstract

This quantitative study aims to assess the quality of census information on the Brazilian centenarian population for the years 2000 and 2010, comparing it with indirect estimates. Recognizing problems in statistics on advanced ages, Rosenwaike's (1968) extinct and near-extinct generations methods were applied, which use death data to estimate the elderly population. The results were compared with the censuses, revealing significant variations between the 2000 and 2010 data, with improvements observed in the latter. Although the natural trend is for the centenarian population to grow, the improvement in data quality counterbalances the estimates, leading to the observed reduction in the estimated population between the years 2000 and 1991. This is confirmed by the similar quantities in the 2000 and 2010 censuses even after 10 years. Since 2010, both the census and death records have shown an increase in numbers, consistent with the trends. Finally, although there are still gaps, the estimated numbers are more affected by the increase in the population of centenarians than by the improvement in quality that has been occurring in both the census and death records. This study contributes to the accuracy of estimates of centenarians in Brazil, assisting in the development of public policies for advanced ages.